With the number of MLAs from the Seema-Andhra region more compared to those from Telangana, it is very likely that the resolution favouring Telangana will be struck down in the Andhra Pradesh legislative assembly. Kiran Kumar Reddy and his men are waiting for the resolution to reach the legislative assembly so that they can create a ruckus before striking it down thanks to the numbers they have.
The Union Cabinet is likely to meet on September 19th and issue a note proposing the formation of Telangana. This would be placed before the Parliament for debate and needs to be passed in both houses. At the moment, A K Antony is briefing senior leaders in New Delhi about the developments and agitations in Telangana. However the Congress leadership is firm about its decision on Telangana.
There has been a big question mark and also a doubt over the role of the state assembly in the formation of a new state. Once it comes to the assembly for an opinion it all depends on the numbers. In the AP assembly there are 175 MLAs from Seema-Andhra seeking a unified state while the number of MLAs from Telangana are 119. Hence in terms of numbers the Telangana MLAs stand no chance as they will for sure be outnumbered.
However the people of Telangana have a lot to smile about. Although mandatory, there is nothing in the book that states that the opinion of the state assembly needs to be considered.
The rules pertaining to the formation of new states would say that there is no requirement for the Parliament to consider the resolution of the state assembly. However it is mandatory that the President does send it to the assembly for an opinion before the Parliament passes the bill.
The Congress at first was contemplating not sending the resolution to the state assembly as they were well aware of the ruckus that would be caused. However the legal opinion given to the Congress states that the procedure has to be initiated but there is no rule which states that the opinion needs to be considered. Kiran Kumar Reddy and his men will look to cause maximum ruckus when the resolution reaches the assembly as they need to show to their voters that they are doing everything to oppose the division of Andhra Pradesh.
The Constitution of India clearly states that it is not mandatory for the President to take a decision based on the Assembly resolution. He can go ahead with the formation of the state once the Parliament passes it in both houses. Even if a negative opinion is given by the state assembly it would not be bearing on the decision of the President.
Another procedure that may be required is the formation of a Commission which would look into capital sharing, boundaries, water sharing among other issues. Under Article 3, after the President refers the matter to the state assembly. After this it needs to be ratified by the Parliament. The President who is the final authority will not need to consider the opinion of the state assembly but will have to look into the recommendations of the commission to ensure a smooth transition in forming a new state.